7/11/2006 IMMIGRATION ALERT
IMMIGRATION REFORM: SUMMARY AND LEGISLATIVE ODDS REPORT

Immigration reform is gripping the country. Hammond Law Group started its Healthcare Immigration Advocacy Blog (http://hammondlawgroup.blogspot.com) this past March. We invite you to bookmark it and check back regularly. We tend to update the blog several times per week. While the blog has a healthcare spin, it is also updated with timely information on the H-1 cap and green card quotas for business immigration generally.

Several different immigration reform scenarios are currently in front of Congress. The President will likely sign anything that crosses his desk, since he is anxious to look like he’s getting something done on immigration reform. However he is still stumping only for a Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill. While the immigration debate is focused on Border Security, Enforcement, and Terrorism, this Immigration Alert will focus on business’ chances of having positive immigration reform passed.

The leading Business friendly bill is the SKIL Bill, which has been introduced in both the House and the Senate. The Senate included most of the SKIL Bill provisions in its recently passed CIR bill. Just before the July 4th recess Rep. Shadegg (R-AZ) and nine Republican cosponsors introduced the SKIL bill into the House.

All of the pro-business measures call for more-or-less the same reforms:

Significant increase to the H-1 cap. The smallest increases call for a doubling of the quota. Some measures add a market-based component, which would annually adjust the quota to meet market demands. Congress realizes that the recent two month H-1 “season” is untenable if the U.S. economy is to continue to grow.
Increases to the Employment-Based Green Card Quota. Here the smallest measures also call for a doubling of the quota. This is necessary since otherwise qualified Employment-Based immigrants are currently prohibited from obtaining green cards solely because of quotas. Some pro-business measures also eliminate non-worker derivative family members against the employment-based quota as a way to artificially inflate the quota.
Various fast-tracked visa provisions for US Masters graduates. Congress realizes that if it is to entice foreign students, it cannot subsequently throw them out by limiting their access to H-1 visas and green cards.
Shortage Worker visa exceptions. The Department of Labor has designated two professions – Registered Nurses and Physical Therapists – as occupations which are extremely underserved by US workers. A variety of proposals exempt these occupations from the green card quota.

At this point there are several potential outcomes for immigration reform:

1. Enforcement Only. These proposals say that a wall must be built along the Mexican Border and that the current 10-12 million undocumented workers must be either deported, or have their access to work restricted through severe employer sanctions. In December 2005, the House passed a strict Enforcement Only bill. The Senate seems unlikely to pass an Enforcement Only bill.
2. Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). These proposals call for many of the Enforcement measures as well as many of the pro-business measures described above. The Senate passed a CIR bill in March. The House seems unlikely to pass CIR.
3. SKIL Bill or other Business-friendly bill. There is a growing movement in Congress to conclude that the business measures are too important to be held back by the country’s debate on Enforcement.
4. CIR with triggers. The idea here is that Congress would pass a bill which would immediately begin the Enforcement provisions. Then, once certain objective measures were met, other provisions would be “triggered”. These provisions would mainly deal with increased migrant labor immigration. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) has been out in front of this proposal. Since no text has been released, it is unclear if the pro-business measures outlined earlier would become immediately available or if they would be subject to the triggering clauses; fortunately Rep. Pence tends to be very business friendly.
5. Nothing. Congress could debate and debate, and not resolve anything.

In the interests of helping our clients plan for the future, HLG is offering its first Legislation Odds Report. The LOR is based upon news sources, and our communications with Washington DC contacts, HLG clients, lobbyists, and trade groups.

If you want to increase the odds of any category, please call you Congressman. You can do so with this link: http://www.house.gov/writerep/ It is easy and will take less than 10 minutes! Tell him or her that you support CIR and/or the SKIL Bill.

LEGISLATIVE ODDS REPORT

The blue numbers are “business favorable.” The red numbers are “business unfavorable.” Keep in mind that even if “nothing” happens it is almost certain that targeted pro-business immigration bills will be proposed and passed. These would include a stand-alone H-1 bill, a stand-alone Schedule A bill, and a stand-alone Masters degree worker bill. All have wide-ranging support in both houses of Congress.

* Note: The three columns refer to: Before the November 2006 election, the Lame Duck period (Nov 2006 – Jan 2007), and early 2007 when the new Congressional session begins. This projection is of July 10, 2007.

TOTALS

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